Cobra Effect

QUOTE

Robert K. Mertin once said…

“Almost all human actions have at least one unintended consequence.”

CONCEPT

Cobra Effect

The Cobra Effect is a phenomenon in which interventions designed to solve problems end up creating unintended negative consequences.

Unintended consequences can arise when we fail to take into account the complex feedback loops and interconnectedness of a system. They can also arise from the unintended effects of incentives, as people may respond in ways that are unexpected or not aligned with the intended outcome.

STORY

Snakes On A ... Payment Plan?

During the 19th century, New Delhi was a hotbed of snake activity. Cobras in particular were a major problem, as their venom was lethal and could easily kill humans. British colonial rulers in India sought to control the cobra population, but traditional methods such as hiring snake catchers were not effective enough.

In 1857, the British government came up with a new policy to address the cobra problem. They introduced a bounty system, which offered a financial reward for each dead cobra that was brought to the authorities. Initially, this approach seemed like a promising solution. People in New Delhi started killing cobras to collect the bounty, and the cobra population appeared to be dwindling.

However, things soon started to go awry.

It turned out that some locals had begun breeding cobras specifically to kill them and claim the bounty. As a result, the cobra population in New Delhi continued to grow, as more and more cobras were being bred and killed for the reward. Despite the best efforts of the British authorities, the bounty system had inadvertently created a perverse incentive that actually made the cobra problem worse.

When the British authorities eventually caught on to the scheme, they were quick to act. They immediately ended the bounty program and set out to capture and destroy the artificially-bred cobras.

Not surprisingly, this too had unintended consequences.

The breeders, now left with a large number of cobras that were useless to them, released the snakes into the wild. The cobra population in New Delhi exploded, with more cobras than ever before now on the loose.

The British authorities were left to deal with a problem that was worse than the one they had set out to solve. The Cobra Effect had taken hold, and it was a harsh reminder that even the most well-intentioned policies can backfire if they do not take into account the full complexity of a system.