Cassandra Predicament

QUOTE

Richard Feynman once said…

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.”

CONCEPT

Cassandra Predicament

The Cassandra Predicament refers to the challenge of trying to persuade others to take action based on information that is not yet widely accepted. This can be particularly difficult when there is a lack of urgency, or when the information is complex and difficult to understand.

To overcome the Cassandra Predicament, experts must be skilled at communicating complex ideas in an accessible and compelling way. They must also work to create a sense of urgency around the issue at hand.

STORY

Ka … Boom?

On May 18, 1980, a massive volcanic eruption occurred at Mount St. Helens in the state of Washington. It was the deadliest and most economically destructive volcanic event in U.S. history. And while it couldn’t have been prevented, the toll it took—in human lives—could have.

David Johnston, a geologist with the United States Geological Survey (USGS), had been stationed at an observation post on the mountain for two months prior to the eruption. Johnston studied the geology of the area extensively and noticed an unusual bulge on the north side of the mountain, which he believed was a sign that magma was building up beneath the surface. He had also detected a series of earthquakes and small explosions which, combined with his other observations, were likely signs of an upcoming major eruption.

Johnston concluded that Mount St. Helens was a ticking time bomb.

Once realizing what was happening, Johnston repeatedly warned that the area was in danger, that an eruption was imminent. But his warnings were largely ignored. The local residents, businesses, and government officials had grown accustomed to the mountain's occasional rumblings and did not take him seriously.

Despite his educated assessment and desperate warnings, no one took action. Government officials refused to evacuate the area, fearing that it would cause panic and economic damage. The businesses and residents continued to operate as usual, believing that the warnings were exaggerated.

On the morning of May 18, 1980, Mount St. Helens erupted with a force equivalent to 500 atomic bombs. Johnston radioed his colleagues at the USGS headquarters, telling them that the eruption had finally occurred. In his final transmission, he famously declared: "Vancouver! Vancouver! This is it!"

Despite his urgent warnings, many people in the surrounding areas were slow to evacuate, thinking that they would have time to escape. The blast flattened 230 square miles of forest, sent a massive ash cloud into the air, and caused mudslides and flooding that devastated the surrounding area. A total of 57 people lost their lives in the disaster.

Johnston's warnings were tragically ignored, even though he had the expertise and the evidence to support his predictions. Despite his warnings, many people chose not to heed his advice and evacuate, leading to needless loss of life. Johnston's legacy lives on as a reminder of the importance of listening to experts, even when their warnings are uncomfortable or inconvenient.