Reversion to the Mean
QUOTE
Lao Tzu once said…
“Life is a series of natural and spontaneous changes. Don't resist them; that only creates sorrow. Let reality be reality. Let things flow naturally forward in whatever way they like.”
(Chinese philosopher and writer.)
CONCEPT
Reversion to the Mean
Reversion to the Mean is a statistical concept that describes how, over time, extreme values or outliers in any data series tend to return towards the average or mean value.
This phenomenon occurs because the extreme values are often the result of short-term variance rather than a fundamental shift in the underlying data.
It's a reminder that in many aspects of life and nature, extremes are usually temporary and tend to normalize over time.
STORY
Mean … Is Good?
In 1997, the world experienced one of the most intense El Niño events on record.
El Niño is characterized by the significant warming of ocean waters in the Pacific, leading to drastic weather changes globally. The intense El Niño of 1997 serves as a prime example, when extreme weather conditions were observed worldwide, causing widespread disruptions.
However, the essence of this story lies not in the climate upheaval itself, but in what followed.
Following the 1997 El Niño, climatologists witnessed a gradual shift back to normalcy. This shift, known as La Niña, is the phase where cooler ocean temperatures restore the usual weather patterns. This cycle of extreme change (El Niño) followed by a return to average conditions (La Niña) exemplifies Reversion to the Mean.
In the context of El Niño, Reversion to the Mean is not just a statistical curiosity but a natural balancing act.
The 1997 event was an outlier, a significant deviation from the norm, and its aftermath demonstrated the natural tendency of systems to return to their average state.
This story underscores the broader principle of Reversion to the Mean, applicable in various domains beyond climatology. It's a reminder that while extreme events or outliers can occur, systems often have inherent tendencies to return to a state of equilibrium, a mean around which they fluctuate.
Understanding this principle is crucial, as it offers a perspective on the temporary nature of extremes and the enduring power of averages in shaping our world.