Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

QUOTE

Mark Manson once said…

“If you eat pickles often and win the lottery, it does not mean pickles caused you to win the lottery.”

CONCEPT

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a Latin phrase that translates to "after this, therefore because of this."

This logical fallacy occurs when one event is assumed to have caused a subsequent event simply because it occurred before the subsequent event.

In reality, correlation does not imply causation, and there may be other variables at play that influenced the outcome.

STORY

Watch Out ... The TV Will Get You!

At the dawn of the television age in the United States, in the years following World War II, an ominous mystery was unfolding. Alongside the thrilling wave of technological innovation, a health crisis began to take root.

The number of polio cases, a dreaded disease that primarily struck children with often devastating consequences, was escalating rapidly. Strangely enough, this surge coincided perfectly with the rising number of television sets gracing American living rooms.

As more families huddled around the warm glow of their TV sets, an unsettling narrative spread: was the magic box that brought entertainment and news directly into the home also delivering a deadly disease?

Fear was inflamed by the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc, with folks leaping to make a connection: "The number of TVs is up; the number of polio cases is up; therefore, TVs must be causing polio."

The nation was gripped in a moral and medical panic, the tendrils of correlation taking over reason.

However, just as fear began to take root, a group of diligent scientists entered the scene. Working tirelessly, they began to unpack the intricate nuances of the polio virus, exploring its spread, its impact, and the factors contributing to its sudden increase.After a barrage of studies and painstaking research, they found the real culprit: better diagnosis and reporting of the disease, not the innocuous television set.

In 1955, the introduction of the polio vaccine finally turned the tide. Polio cases plunged dramatically as television ownership soared to even greater heights. The seemingly linked trends had decisively diverged.

The post hoc fallacy was laid bare for all to see: correlation had been mistaken for causation, and a technological marvel had been wrongfully accused.