Planning Fallacy
QUOTE
Eleanor Roosevelt once said…
“It takes as much energy to wish as it does to plan.”
CONCEPT
Planning Fallacy
The Planning Fallacy is a cognitive bias that causes people to underestimate the time they will need to complete a task, despite knowing that similar tasks have typically taken longer in the past.
Coined by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979, this phenomenon can lead to projects going over budget, missing deadlines, and failing to meet initial expectations.
It happens due to optimism bias and a focus on the most favorable scenario, while not adequately considering potential problems and delays that could occur.
STORY
It'll Only Take Five Years ... I Promise
In 1957, Danish architect Jørn Utzon won an international competition to design an opera house for Sydney, Australia. With its unique sail-shaped roof, Utzon's design was unlike anything ever built.
The projected cost of the structure was AUD 7 million, and it was slated for completion by Australia Day in January 1963—roughly five years of work.
However, the audacious design turned out to be an engineering nightmare.
The building's innovative shell structure proved extremely difficult to build. After many failed attempts, Utzon eventually had to invent a completely new construction method, known as the "spherical solution", to achieve the distinct shell design.
In addition to the engineering challenges, there were escalating costs, political controversies, and public outcry over the delays and spiralling budget.
In 1966, after nine years of stressful development, Utzon resigned from the project following a dispute with the Minister of Public Works.
A new team of architects was brought in to finish the job. The interior of the building had to be redesigned because Utzon's original design was incompatible with the now completed exterior shells.
The Sydney Opera House was finally completed in 1973, ten years late and at a cost of AUD 102 million—over 14 times the original estimate.
Despite the challenges and controversies, the building has since been hailed as a masterpiece of 20th-century architecture.
Next time you plan a project ... keep this in mind.