Lindy Effect

QUOTE

Nassim Nicholas Taleb once said…

“Survival of the fittest applies not just to nature, but also to our creations; the ideas and technologies that withstand the rigors of time prove their fitness above all.”

(Lebanese-American essayist and mathematical statistician.)

CONCEPT

Lindy Effect

The Lindy Effect is a concept that predicts the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, such as a technology or an idea, based on their current age.

The rule of thumb is that the longer something has been around, the longer it can be expected to last into the future. Essentially, the Lindy Effect suggests that the future life expectancy is proportional to their current age.

STORY

Survival of the Fittest ... Or the Longest?

The Lindy Effect was named after a quirky observation made at Lindy's, a famous delicatessen in New York City, where Broadway actors and critics would gather after shows. In the 1960s, the delicatessen became an informal hub for lively discussions about the staying power of theatrical productions.

The actors and critics noted a simple yet curious trend: the longer a show had already run, the longer it was likely to continue running.

This phenomenon became a tongue-in-cheek heuristic among the patrons of Lindy's. They joked that if you wanted to bet on the success of a show, you should just look at how long it had been on stage. The longer it was, the more it seemed immune to the rapid decline typical of Broadway flops.

It was the theatrical world’s way of saying that 'survivorship' is a marker of further survival.

One regular at Lindy's was writer and critic Benoit Mandelbrot, known for his work on fractals and chaos theory. Mandelbrot was fascinated by the non-intuitive nature of this observation. He realized that this principle applied not just to Broadway shows but to a wide range of non-perishable entities like technology, ideas, and even businesses.

As the deli buzzed with the background noise of clinking dishes and spirited debates, Mandelbrot observed that this casual empirical rule among theater aficionados held profound implications.

The Lindy Effect, as it came to be known, encapsulated a concept that would gain significant attention in fields as diverse as economics, technology, and cultural studies.

Over time, the Lindy Effect has been used to describe the staying power of everything from books to businesses, suggesting that the ability to endure is itself a predictor of continued existence.

And just like those Broadway shows, Lindy’s Delicatessen itself became a testament to the Lindy Effect, remaining a staple in New York City for forty-eight years, its longevity feeding into its own mythos—a place not only serving meals but also serving as the birthplace of a profound observational theory.